Short of Canton: Chad Johnson

With Chad Ocho-son, wait sorry, Chad Johncinco, or whatever he goes by these days, I see a great player overshadowed by his on-field antics. He was dominant at Cincinnati for the better part of a decade. But is that enough to warrant consideration for Canton? If you simply compare his mass stats with those in the Hall, he falls way short. But I want to take a different look at his candidacy. I want to see if he should make it by just being good enough.

How Many Belong in the Hall?

If you look at all 25 WRs in the Hall of Fame right now, you can paint an entirely different picture. If you look at those 25 WRs and put them into categories based on the decades they played, you can see how many Hall of Fame WRs played in each decade. I feel I described that poorly, so basically if you played a season in a decade you qualify for that decade. So Jerry Rice falls into the 80’s, 90’s and 00s. After doing that, we can see how many WRs we can expect to be in the 00’s.

 

So we can expect the 00’s to have around 9 Hall of Fame WRs. So far we have had 5: Andre Reed, Jerry Rice, Cris Carter, Marvin Harrison, and Tim Brown. Now I think we can all agree that Randy Moss and Terrell Owens will be in the Hall eventually. It is a crime that Owens isn’t already in but that is another argument for another day. So all we have to do to decide if Chad Ochocinco deserves Hall of Fame consideration is see if there are 2 or more WRs during the 2000s who deserve it more.

Who Deserves it?

I chose 11 of the best WRs to take a snap in the 00’s and compared their Yards/Rec, TD/Rec, Rec/Game, and Catch %. I chose these stats because I feel it is a good way to show the strengths of every type of reciever. Red Zone threats would score better in TDs/game than Rec/Game, Deep Threats would do better in Yards/Rec than Catch/Game, and possession receivers would do better with Rec/Game and Catch% than Yards/Red and TDs/Rec. 

 

The raw data is kind of hard to make a decision on. It is just too hard to read and compare quickly. So, I decided to make two graphs, Catch % vs. Yards/Rec and Rec/Game vs. TDs/Rec. I chose to pair them like that because if you have a high Catch% and a high Yards/Rec that means you catch a ton of deep balls. Where as having a high Rec/Game and TDs/Rec means you catch a lot of balls and a lot of them are touchdowns. Here are the results:

Clearly there is a connection between Catch% and Yards/Rec. Deep threats catch the ball less. So it will be hard to determine what points are better. I think ones in the middle are better for they show a good balance of being a move the sticks/reliable handed guy while still being a regular deep threat. TDs/Rec vs. is seemingly more random. The farther in the top right you are the better you are (more TDs/Rec and Rec/Game).

Conclusion

So where does Chad Johnson fall? Well I marked his data point on the graphs. You cannot tell too much from the graphs, so lets look where he is ranked in each category. I averaged how all 11 WRs ranked in each category and compared them together. For instance, say you got 4th, 7th, 9th, and 1st then you would average a 5.25. Lets see where our boy Chad falls:

Chad Johnson falls short. He only ranks 7th among the other top WRs of his time. That is not enough to warrant Hall of Fame consideration. If he was in the top 4 or maybe 5 I could try and make an argument that since we all know the league has become more passing that more WRs will make it into the Hall of Fame than before so it wouldn’t be un reasonable to expect more than 9.  But coming in 7th? Yeah there is no shot for Ochocinco, sorry to say. 

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