With early voting in, experts are predicting extremely high turnout in the runoff vote for the Georgia special congressional election taking place on June 20.
You can point to a lot of bad things Donald Trump has been doing, but you have to give him some credit for the way he can energize people from all sides of the political spectrum. He’s one of those guys that basically demands your opinion of him to be very strong, whether it is good or bad.
Democrat Jon Ossoff has a slight lead in the polls and has gained since the first vote in the special election, for which he actually won the most votes but failed to gain an outright majority, causing a runoff between the top vote getters from the first round. The fact that this election is even in play is pretty bad news for Donald Trump, who relies on strong support in the South, along with the rest of the Republican party.
A loss here could be a major wakeup call for congressional Republicans, several of whom I’m sure will start brushing back against Trump depending on how popular he is in their district. This doesn’t mean they’ll start drafting the articles of impeachment, but the worse Republicans are looking in the polls for 2018, the more they’re gonna start looking at Trump as the reason for their polling problems.
Unfortunately for most Republicans, they already lost their chance to disavow Trump many times over, and unless there is a major change in current trends there will be quite a few Republicans losing their seats over their support for the President. And since whether or not the President/party leadership likes you is a major factor in how much a congressman can get done, so one has to imagine that a lot of the GOP is feeling caught between a rock and a hard place.
We certainty shouldn’t rush to judgment on anything, but DJT is looking at dismal approval ratings, no matter how hard he tweets about outlier polls saying his approval ratings are fine. When a guy like Trump is getting excited over 50% approval ratings, that’s a good indicator that the situation is not great for him.
Wild card events, like the recent shooting of Steve Scalise, are always possibilities and make it so predictions are especially hard to make. The fact that the Russia investigation could break a million different ways also does this. Ultimately, although there’s a great deal of potential variability in the next few months, it doesn’t seem like Trump has any good news to hang his hat on over the past few weeks besides dismantling parts of the bureaucracy that some of his followers believe to be a drain.
I just don’t see him dragging out any sort of policy victories in the near future, and I don’t know what GOP congressional candidates are going to be able to campaign on in terms of getting things done once 2018 rolls around. To use some political commentator lingo, I think Donald Trump should be very troubled by this upcoming Georgia election.