Republicans won decisive victories in the special congressional elections in Georgia and South Carolina. It was a disappointing day for Democrats, who had hoped that the President’s poor approval ratings would give their underdog candidates a boost.
The results of these elections are in that perfect gray area where both sides will be able to spin them positively, but they’re internally pretty worried. The Republicans defended their seats, but the races were definitely closer than they had hoped. Interestingly, both elections went to he GOP on roughly a roughly 51-48 margin, except many (the “liberal media”) expected the Democrat Ossoff to win in Georgia, while Ralph Norman was expected to win by more than he did.
These results are a bit frustrating because no one can really make any sort of prediction about the 2018 elections based on them. As I said, either side can spin these results however they want and the talking heads are just gonna keep yelling into their echo chamber/at clouds. The one thing that you CAN predict about 2018 based on these elections is that there will be assloads of money spent on any race that is even a little bit competitive.
Over $50 million was spent on the Georgia race alone, making it the most expensive House race in history. Sure, it’s a bit extravagant and unnecessary, but that kind of cash is basically like a giant economic stimulus package every 2-4 years. I’m a politics guy, and shorter elections means less things for politics guys to do, which means fewer politics guys with jobs, so I’ll keep my mouth shut. The entire country going completely insane is a small price to pay.
Knowing money is going to be one of the main factors in an election is like knowing LeBron is gonna play well against your team. Yeah, everyone knows that, but you don’t know how he’s gonna play well and you couldn’t stop him anyway (I had a joke about super teams and super PACs here but I lost it). Anyway, the point is that both sides have unlimited money and it’s unclear who has more to lose. The good news is that it will make for an exciting midterm election season, the bad news is that we’ll have to wait a bit longer before we start wildly speculating about how they will go.
The one thing I know for sure is that LeTrump better get his act together soon if he wants to be able to do anything in his last two years. The Republicans can do fine if the normal Republicans (normies) and the Trumpies (Trump groupies) all vote the same way, but there’s gonna be tension between them as long as Republicans in Congress need to appear to care about all of the Russia allegations. If the Mueller probe goes poorly (for the GOP) before the 2018 election and people are forced to choose between Trump and congressional Republicans, the Dems are taking the House back no problem.