Folks I’m very excited right now as you could imagine. WE have the draft in a couple hours and NBA news and rumors flying around like squirrels. Now we did the countdown thing and that was great, but I decided to toss another quick write up out here. I want to give you some interesting upside/high value/sleeper picks tonight, so let’s get into it because I want to give you all time to prepare for tonight’s festivities.
1st Round Picks Who Could Rise Higher
John Collins, Forward, Wake Forrest University.
Career Line: 13.4/7/.4/.5/1.2; 60.1 FG%, 3pt N/A, 63.8% true shooting percentage
Collins is a tricky one here because some boards have him as high as 13, but there’s a possibility of him sneaking into the top 10. Collins saw an impressive spike in numbers pretty much across the board, due to a ~12 minutes increase in minutes. Crazy how that happens huh? The NCAA’s leader in Player Efficiency Rating this past season, and the ACC’s leader in field goal percentage, true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage, total rebound percentage and total rebounds, Collins brings grit and efficiency down low. A touch of old school dropped in the new school never hurt a damn person. All of this, naturally, correlates to winning- Collins’ 2016-17 saw him snag 7.1 win shares, ranked 6th in the ACC, and his BPM of 5.7 is nothing to shy your nose up at either. Some team like the Knicks at 8, the Mavs at 9 or the Kings at 10 could sneak in and grab some help down low in Collins, and they would be smart to do that.
Harry Giles, Center, Duke University
Career Line: 3.9/3.8/.3/.3./.7; 57.7% FG, 3pt N/A, 57% true shooting percentage, 57.7% effective field goal percentage, 19.8 PER
Someone is going to take a chance on this kid, I can just feel it. Giles was a high school phenomenon, and the hype train followed him all the way to Duke. His stats aren’t even good, let alone great, and he has a history of injuries, but some team in that is looking to shoot for the stars is gonna pull the trigger.
2nd Round Value Picks
Jordan Bell, Forward, Oregon
10.9/8.8/1.8/1.3/2.2; 63.6 FG%, 21.4 3pt%, 65.8 True Shooting %, 64.1 Effective Field Goal%
Draft Express has him at 33, but this kid is all grit, and I think someone would be smart to take him in the late first. Led the PAC-12 in BPM at 13.6, block percentage at 11.5, 3rd in win shares at 6.2, the kid does what is necessary, evident during Oregon’s tournament run. He gets out in transition, pounds the ball inside, and above all, defends like a madman. Someone would be smart to reach for him.
Nigel Williams-Goss, Guard, Gonzaga
16.8/6.0/4.7/1.7/.1; 48.6 FG%, 36.8 3pt%, 59.4% True Shooting Percentage, 53.3 Effective Field Goal Percentage, 25.7 PER
The NCAA leader in win shares and defensive win shares is slotted last in one mock draft. That seems, interesting. Aside from his effecting winning in an extreme way, that stat line, which garnered him a consensus All-American nod and West Coast Conference POY. Transferring after two seasons from Washington, Goss’ stats paint a very complete picture of this kid, and while he is slotted far lower than where he should be, someone is going to be happy to steal this kid. Possibly the best perimeter defender in the draft, he had 3.6 defensive win shares couple with 1.7 steals and a 5.5 defensive box plus minus, I have no idea how anyone puts this kid last, it’s not like his offensive splits are atrocious to bring him down…
Sindarious Thornwell, Guard, South Carolina
2016-17: 21.4/7.2/2.8/2.1/1.0; 44.5 FG%, 39.5 3pt%, 59.1 True Shooting %, 51.1 Effective Field Goal Percentage, 30.6 PER
Slated 2 spots ahead of Goss at 58, Thornwell presents another interesting prospect. 7.2 win shares, it’s almost as if people weren’t looking at that stat with these last two players… Thornwell is a capable shooter with obvious room for improvement, especially from deep. The NCAA leader in BPM at 16.2, and the 2016-17 SEC POY is slated for the 58th pick, which doesn’t make sense to me. I’m not saying that stat should determine the draft, but it just seems like someone fucked up on this one…
Hey, have an amazing draft everyone, and be sure to check in on twitter for draft updates/takes.
All stats courtesy of sports-reference college basketball